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The impact of corona virus on hospitality industry in China 新冠病毒对中国第三产业的影响

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The impact of corona virus on hospitality industry in China 新冠病毒对中国第三产业的影响

A brief look at the impact of corona virus on hospitality industry in China during SARS outbreak in 2003, and what can be expected in 2020.

回看2003年非典疫情中酒店,旅游和餐饮业所受冲击,预测2020年新冠病毒对第三产业的影响

The SARS outbreak started in January 2003 and lasted for 5 months before the situation is fully controlled. According to the official data from NBS China, the GDP growth rate during SARS outbreak was slowed down by 2%, but recovered to normal rate right after the finish of the outbreak.

非典在2003年一月爆发,在情况得到最终控制前,累计持续5个月. 根据国家统计局报告,非典爆发期间全国GDP增速下降2%左右,但在疫情结束后迅速回升至正常水平.


Figure 1 China GDP growth rate 2001-2005    Source: NBS,  Necromancer financial
图一
中国2001-2005年GDP增速   数据来源:国家统计局  图表来源:巫师财经

Although all three major industries’ growth rate have all declined during SARS epidemic, the tertiary industry was seriously struck and took double time to recover, comparing with second industry.

三大产业增速在非典疫情中均有下降,第三产业受损尤其严重,其恢复速度相比第二产业慢了一倍有余.


Figure 2 Growth rate of 3 major industries of China 2000-2008    
Source: NBS,  Necromancer financial
图二 2000-2008年中国三大产业增加值增速   
数据来源:国家统计局  图表来源:巫师财经

The higher portion of tertiary industry took in GDP, the higher damage will occur in the economy caused by epidemic.  From 2003-2019, The tertiary industry portion in total GDP has increased from 42% to 54%. But is it going to cause significant damage to hospitality industry?

第三产业占GDP比重越大,经济受疫情影响也会越大.从2003年至2019年,第三产业占中国GDP比重已从42% 上升至54%. 但这具体是否会对服务业产生巨大破坏?


 Figure 3 The portions of three major industries contributing to GDP    
Source: NBS,  Necromancer financial
图三 GDP中三大产业占比
数据来源:国家统计局  图表来源:巫师财经
Group photo of Gaby with the first trainees at the Schiphol airport
盖比与第一批培训学员在荷兰机场的合影

Let’s take some data from catering, hotel and tourism for analysis. During SARS epidemic, the star hotels occupancy growth rate reduced below zero%, but had a vengeful 5% growth in 2004. There were fluctuation after the epidemic in the following years, but the mean average stayed similar.

我们选取餐饮,酒店和旅游中的一些数据来做分析.2003年非典时期,全国星级饭店入住率增速在2003年跌至负值,但在2004年报复式回归至5%. 此后增速各有波动,但平均值差异不大.

Figure 4   Growth rate of star hotels in China    Source: NBS,  Necromancer financial
图四 中国星级酒店入住率增速       数据来源:国家统计局  图表来源:巫师财经

The catering industry had an impact as well. The income growth rate reduced from 27.4% in 2002 to 19.7%  in 2003, but had a huge increase to 54.4% in 2004. However, it is also noticed that the total income amount maintained a healthy growth in the following years.

餐饮行业亦受到打击. 限额以上餐饮行业收入增速在2002年由27.4% 下降至2003年的19.7%, 但次年大幅增长54.4%. 但值得注意的是,往后年份的餐饮收入总体保持了健康良好的增长.

Figure 5   Catering income growth in China      Source: NBS,  Necromancer financial
图五 限额以上餐饮也收入增长       数据来源:国家统计局  图表来源:巫师财经
Gaby trains chefs at Giethoorn restaurant in the flowers park in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province
盖比在江苏省盐城市的荷兰花海中羊角村餐厅培训厨师

Let’s take a look at tourism. Taking Lijiang as an example, in 2003 there was a significant decline of the tourists increasing ratio, but received a quick boost in 2004 and kept a rapid growth in the following years.

再来看旅游. 以丽江为例, 2003年丽江游客接待量增速有大幅下跌,但随后迎来高速增长,并在今后很长时间中维持了快速增长.


Figure 6   Lijiang tourists reception      Source: NBS,  Necromancer financial
图六 限额以上餐饮也收入增长       数据来源:国家统计局  图表来源:巫师财经

It can be concluded that the development of hotel, tourism and catering industry during SARS epidemic and afterwards have a consistent trend. The epidemic will lead to a short term big fluctuation in the market development, but when looking at a much longer time length (10 years plus) We can see the long term impact is relatively limited. After 17 years, although the industry structure of China had a obvious change, but the consistency of the  trend can be regarded to be similar.

可见,酒店,旅游和餐饮板块在疫情期间和结束后的发展具备高度一致性. 疫情会导致短期内先抑后扬的市场发展, 但把时间跨度拉长后,其造成的长远影响相对有限,相关第三产业的整体发展未受太大影响. 17年过去的今天,尽管中国产业结构发生了明显变化,但结合超过10年的数据来看,其规律的一致性可被认为继续适用. 

Gabriella Esselbrugge